The weather pattern in the Stateline, and really in the Midwest as a whole, has been extremely quiet over the past month and a half. There are, however, emerging indications suggesting a more active regime may be soon on the way.
Computer forecast models are beginning to converge on the concept of two rather dynamic systems entering the nation's midsection late this week and into the upcoming weekend. As we'd expect, there's quite a bit of uncertainty with the finer details of these storms, and it may be a few days until we're better able to sort through them. That said, here's how we see things unfolding.
The first storm will, almost undoubtedly, be exclusively a rain producer for our area. Significant warming is to take place beginning Wednesday Night, ultimately yielding temperatures in the upper 40s to near 50° Thursday. Rain is expected to begin in the afternoon hours Thursday, and is likely to continue through a good chunk of the evening before winding down early Friday Morning. Rainfall amounts are unclear at this stage, but there are suggestions that they could be healthy in spots.
Friday will see a brief break in the action before the second storm system takes aim on the Midwest Friday Evening into early Saturday. This storm, likely to be the stronger of the two, could have a more significant impact around our area or nearby.
Models are in surprisingly good agreement in bringing a rather potent system into the Ohio River Valley late Friday. However, as we would expect with a storm still nearly five days out, there's quite a bit of disparity regarding the ultimate track the system takes, and with that, the exact impact we are to see.
As things appear now, it's a good bet that precipitation starts as rain, but as cooler air arrives Friday Night, there could be a period of freezing rain, before an eventual changeover to snow. It's far too early to discuss accumulation amounts, other than to say some accumulation is certainly possible. We'll need to have a better understanding of the ultimate track the storm takes, though, to more confidently say how much, and that may still be a few days away from happening. By Wednesday Night or Thursday Morning the picture should be more clear.
Should the storm take a slightly more southerly track, there may be less rain and more freezing rain or snow. A more northerly track may mean more rain and less ice and snow. These are details we'll monitor very closely in the days ahead. If you do have travel plans in the Midwest Friday Night into Saturday, stay tuned as we continue to monitor this potentially significant storm system.