After stringing together four consecutive days with above normal temperatures, the Stateline has seen a chill return, one that's expected to take us through the remaining three days of February. Arctic air has once again spilled southward, and will send temperatures into the teens for overnight lows both Wednesday and Thursday Nights, with wind chills in the single digits, potentially even nearing 0° in a spot or two. Despite sunshine both Thursday and Friday, temperatures will struggle to reach 30° both days.
For as unpleasant as the next two days may seem, it actually could have been much worse. The fact that the Stateline was spared from any meaningful snow from the early week winter storm allowed the ground to remain bare across the vast majority of the area. Had there been snow cover present, we would easily need to slash seven to ten degrees off the current forecast high and low temperatures. So, instead of our current forecasts of highs in the upper 20s and lows in the middle teens, we would have been faced with highs near 20° and lows near 5°.
Saturday marks a day of transition to Pacific air. While the 38° high temperature forecast for Leap Day will fall modestly shy of February 29 normal levels, it marks the opening salvo of a much milder pattern set to take us into March's opening days.
The jet stream will have fully re-aligned by Sunday, and with broad southwesterly winds blowing at ground level, temperatures will have no difficulty reaching 50° by the afternoon, even with there being more cloudiness around. A second straight 50° Monday also appears a distinct possibility, provided winds remain out of the southwest in advance of an approaching cold front.
Should back-to-back 50s occur in March's opening days, it would mark just the seventh time since 1905 that's occurred, and the first time since 1992!