Strong to severe thunderstorms possible Saturday Afternoon or Evening

Our nearly eight month wait for an 80° temperature is just about to end! 2020s first 80° temperatures could occur over most of the area as early as Saturday, and will absolutely occur on Sunday and beyond. However, the influx of warm, increasingly humid air will also bring with it an associated risk of showers and thunderstorms, including some potentially severe thunderstorms. That said, most of the upcoming weekend is to be dry.

As things appear now, the greatest risk for storms on Saturday will come from the middle of the afternoon into the early evening hours. While there may be a few sprinkles or light showers very early in the day, the vast majority of the Stateline will start out dry Saturday, though clouds are expected to be abundant in coverage.

The big wild card for our Saturday will be whether or not we see any sunshine from the late morning through the mid-afternoon hours. More sunshine will greatly destabilize the atmosphere and provide copious amounts of energy for storms in the mid to late afternoon hours. Should we remain cloudy and comparatively cooler, a more stable atmosphere would greatly limit the severe weather potential.

As it stands, it's likely storms will form over eastern Iowa one way or the other between 2:00 and 3:00, and then work into the Stateline sometime between 3:00 and 4:00 Saturday Afternoon. They'll be relatively quick moving storms, likely exiting the easternmost parts of the area no later than 7:00 or 8:00 Saturday Evening.

Should enough sunshine be present in the afternoon and the storms become severe, all modes of severe weather would be in play, including tornadoes, gusty winds, and hail. Frequent lightning and extremely heavy rainfall will also be possible, which could lead to some localized flooding concerns.

Quiet weather is then expected the rest of Saturday Night, nearly all of Sunday, and into Sunday Evening before the next storm chance comes overnight Sunday Night.