Stateline's pattern to turn more active as humidity rises
For as nice as the recent sunny stretch has been in the Stateline, it's no secret that our area could use some rainfall. It has rained on less than a quarter of our June days thus far, and it's beginning to show in the form of many of our lawns appearing to be rather burnt. The area's rainfall deficit has now grown to 0.80" for the month, and could very likely grow as dry conditions are likely to continue through at least the daytime hours Friday.
Friday's to be a hot one, with our fifth 90° high temperature on track to occur. Last year, our first 90° high didn't occur until the end of the month. However, Friday's humidity levels are to remain manageable, although there'll at least be a bit more moisture present compared to previous days. That said, it's not likely there'll be enough moisture to ignite more than a stray thunderstorm or two late in the afternoon, and, should they occur, they'd be confined to westernmost portions of the area.
Better storm chances are to arrive late Friday Night into early Saturday Morning, though even these are, at this time, appearing to be more scattered in nature. We'll certainly have a much more humid day on Saturday, though, as dew points rise into the far more tropical 65° to 70° range. That moisture will pool ahead of an approaching cold front and will provide an atmosphere rich with energy to support thunderstorms, with the greatest chances looking to come late Saturday Afternoon and into the evening hours.
At this juncture, there does not appear to be a major severe weather risk, as clouds are likely to at least somewhat limit the amount of instability in our atmosphere. Should we, however, be exposed to a few hours of sunshine Saturday Afternoon, that potential would rise considerably. Hail and gusty winds would be our main modes of severe weather, and locally heavy rainfall would also be possible given the copious amounts of moisture available for storms to feed off of. Some of these storms may continue into Sunday Morning, but the expectation is that most of our Father's Day is to be dry beyond the lingering morning showers.
While rain's a very good bet to occur on one or more occasions during the Friday through Sunday time period, major rainfall amounts are, while possible, far from a slam dunk. Two out of three reliable models suggest rainfall amounts in excess of three quarters of an inch are possible, though one predicts less than one quarter of an inch will fall here. Summertime storms rarely produce evenly-spread rainfall across an area. Rather, they're more selective, drenching some spots with several inches of rain in a short amount of time, while leaving other locales with significantly less rain. At the end of the day, the potential is there for many of us to pick up healthy rainfall during this weekend, while others may remain parched for moisture. Only time will tell.