March has been a wet month thus far, and is likely to become even wetter over its final week. The month is already sporting a nearly one inch rainfall surplus, which will undoubtedly grow significantly over the next two to three days.
Thursday and Friday will both feature an abundance of clouds along with chillier northeast winds, bringing temperatures back closer to seasonable levels. While dry hours are promised each day, and could quite likely outnumber the wet ones, both days will feature rain chances, especially in the latter half of the day. Rainfall amounts both Thursday and Friday will remain largely insignificant.
Friday Night into Saturday paints a much more intriguing picture, with a dynamic storm system expected to be ramping up to our west likely to be the main event. A first round of rain is expected Friday Evening, and will likely continue for much of the night, as a strong warm front advances northward toward and eventually through the Stateline. No severe weather will occur with this initial round of rain, though a few rumbles of thunder and heavy downpours are possible.
We're likely to see a break in the action sometime early in the day on Saturday, perhaps extending into the afternoon hours. It'll be critical to see what happens during this break. Should we break into sunshine for a few hours, temperatures will catapult into the middle or even upper 60s. Should skies remain cloudy, temperatures will be restricted a bit, and will remain in the lower 60s. More importantly, whether or not we see sun will greatly dictate our chances for severe thunderstorms later in the day and into Saturday Evening. A sunnier day would increase the chances for severe weather, while a more cloudy day would reduce such a threat.
Either way, as a strong cold front approaches during the afternoon hours, showers and thunderstorms will become nearly certain once again. These will once again have the capability of producing locally heavy rainfall, perhaps leading to some isolated flooding concerns. Close monitoring of this situation will be needed in the days ahead.
Computer model forecasts are in unison in suggesting the potential for some lofty rainfall totals. An ensemble, or average, of four commonly used and reliable models projects 1.56" of rainfall in the Stateline between Thursday and Sunday. Should that projection come to fruition, it would place March, 2020 into the top 15 wettest on record.