While there are still twelve days until Christmas, the window is closing for the Stateline to pick up enough snow to ensure a White Christmas.
As of Friday Night, I have lowered the chance of a White Christmas in the Stateline from 30% to 25%.
It's becoming increasingly likely that a winter storm set to move through parts of the Midwest, the Great Lakes, and the Ohio River Valley will, in all likelihood, not produce major snowfall in the Stateline. While we haven't completely shut the door on sticking snow here Sunday Night into Monday, it's more likely that any accumulation would be on the minor side, with heavier amounts to fall to the south of our immediate area.
Whatever snow the Stateline does receive Sunday Night into Monday won't be here for long. While a brief spell of cooler temperatures is likely through the middle of next week, there are indications that a much milder pattern is to return beginning next Thursday, quite likely lasting through next weekend, and possibly even longer than that. Long range computer forecast models, along with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center are suggesting an above to much above normal temperature regime locking in late next week and taking us beyond Christmas.
While the Climate Prediction Center's 8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook continues to suggest a bias toward slightly above normal precipitation, the warmer temperatures would tend to lean toward precipitation falling as rain as opposed to snow during that period.
There are hints beginning to show up on a few longer range models that our next snowfall of any consequence may not occur until 2020.