It's been an extremely pleasant week thus far, especially considering the calendar now reads December! The 45° high temperature in Rockford Wednesday marks the eleventh straight day with above normal temperatures in the Stateline, with that streak in no danger of ending Thursday.
Barring a catastrophe, temperatures are ticketed for the 40s once again Thursday. It'll be the fourth time in December's first five days to record temperatures in the 40s or above. That's a feat accomplished just four other times since 2000, and 32 times dating back to 1906. Stated otherwise, only 28% of Decembers have started out on a note as mild or milder than this one.
If history is any guide, a mild start to December has oftentimes led to snowfall deficiencies during the winter months. Analyzing the winters of the other 32 years to have had similar starts to December, our research found that 23 went on to produce below normal snowfall, while just 9 saw above normal snow. Only time will tell which way this winter will go, but indications suggest no significant snow is in our immediate future. In fact, long-range models suggest little, if any snowfall here over the next 10 to 14 days.