Warmer, more active pattern to arrive shortly

Several 80s remain a good bet
Published: Sep. 19, 2023 at 7:03 PM CDT
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ROCKFORD, Ill. (WIFR) - Tuesday was, at times, quite a dreary one, though that’s not necessarily the worst news.

The Stateline was on the receiving end of several hours of steady rainfall, which helped put another small dent in our months-long drought situation. There’s more rain in the forecast in the days to come, as the pattern is to turn decidedly more active through the rest of the week and beyond.

The first chance for rain will come our way overnight into early Wednesday morning. Showers and storms will enter around or shortly after midnight, and could stick around through the morning commute. It should be noted that this activity will not be continuous, nor will all of us see rainfall. The best chances for rain during this time period will come along and south of Interstate 88, though any one of us could still see a scattered shower.

Another round of showers and storms may creep in overnight, especially along and south of...
Another round of showers and storms may creep in overnight, especially along and south of Interstate 88.(Mark Henderson, WIFR)
A few scattered showers are possible early in the day Wednesday.
A few scattered showers are possible early in the day Wednesday.(Mark Henderson, WIFR)

The rest of the daytime hours look to be, for the most part, dry. However, given rising temperatures and increasing moisture levels in the atmosphere, an isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out entirely. Highs on Wednesday will likely top out in the lower 80s.

A mix of sun and clouds is on tap Wednesday, though a scattered shower can't be ruled out either.
A mix of sun and clouds is on tap Wednesday, though a scattered shower can't be ruled out either.(Mark Henderson, WIFR)

Thursday looks to be, for the most part, similar to Wednesday. Most of the day will be dry, sunshine will mix with clouds, and temperatures will be on the warm side. A shower or two can’t be ruled out, but the vast majority of the day promises to be dry. A slight wind shift to the southeast may take a slight toll on temperatures, though we’re still ticketed for the upper 70s.

A mix of sun and clouds is expected Thursday, though a stray shower can't be ruled out at any...
A mix of sun and clouds is expected Thursday, though a stray shower can't be ruled out at any time.(Mark Henderson, WIFR)

The next rain chance of note comes our way Thursday night into early Friday as another disturbance approaches from the southwest. Again, rain won’t be continuous, nor will it be occurring areawide. However, it’s at least something for which to be on the lookout for one and all.

Rain returns to the region Thursday night into Friday morning.
Rain returns to the region Thursday night into Friday morning.(Mark Henderson, WIFR)
Friday might get off to a bit of a soggy start.
Friday might get off to a bit of a soggy start.(Mark Henderson, WIFR)
Scattered showers and storms are possible off and on Friday.
Scattered showers and storms are possible off and on Friday.(Mark Henderson, WIFR)

The warm, active pattern isn’t to be done Friday. A slow moving upper level low pressure system will be churning to our west through the weekend. This system will send numerous disturbances in our direction, which will bring occasional clusters of shower or t-storms in our direction. Again, we’re not talking about any all-day washouts on any particular day. Rather, we’re looking at an hour of rain here or two hours there. Dry hours will be plentiful on each of the next five days.

We're not looking at any all day washouts, but there is a rain chance in the forecast daily...
We're not looking at any all day washouts, but there is a rain chance in the forecast daily through the weekend.(Mark Henderson, WIFR)

With that said, the rain may very well add up over time. Longer range projections are in unison in suggesting that at least an inch of rain is on the way over the next ten days, while some models are projecting more than two inches are on the way. Oftentimes, the reality ends up being somewhere in the middle, and if we’re to get an inch and a half of rain over the next week and a half, few would be complaining at all.

An active pattern is expected over the next week to week and a half.
An active pattern is expected over the next week to week and a half.(Mark Henderson, WIFR)