Winter storm to take aim on the Midwest Wednesday, impacts on the Stateline becoming more clear

ROCKFORD, Ill. (WIFR) - While many are celebrating the fact January, and to some extent, Winter has been unseasonably mild and uncharacteristically snow-free, snow enthusiasts have become increasingly frustrated, and for good reason.

Thus far, the 2022-23 snow season has produced just 6.3″ of snowfall officially in Rockford, with even lower amounts in areas to our south. That’s closing in on a foot below where we should be by January 17.

Unfortunately, it looks as though the Stateline’s in for another near miss with the next storm system due to impact the Midwest Wednesday and Thursday.

Wednesday’s to start dry, though we’ll be watching for precipitation to begin sometime either late Wednesday afternoon or very early Wednesday evening. Initially, precipitation looks to start off as snow, but a gradual transition to a rain/snow/sleet mix will take place as the evening progresses. You’ll notice just how close that rain/snow/mix line will be to our immediate area, so we’ll still need to closely watch for wobbles either to the north or to the south. A slightly farther north shift would mean less snow and more rain, while a slight southerly jaunt may spell more snow here.

Precipitation will be on approach to the Stateline by the mid-afternoon hours Wednesday. — Precipitation will be on approach to the Stateline by the mid-afternoon hours Wednesday.(Mark Henderson, WIFR)

Precipitation looks to get underway early Wednesday evening, first as snow, but quickly mixing... — Precipitation looks to get underway early Wednesday evening, first as snow, but quickly mixing with or changing to rain thereafter.(Mark Henderson, WIFR)

The rain/snow/mix line looks to be very close to the Stateline for much of Wednesday evening,... — The rain/snow/mix line looks to be very close to the Stateline for much of Wednesday evening, though it appears as though Wisconsin residents are to see more in the way of snow.(Mark Henderson, WIFR)

Precipitation looks to wind down a bit late Wednesday night. — Precipitation looks to wind down a bit late Wednesday night.(Mark Henderson, WIFR)

Something to keep in mind will be the wind Wednesday evening. While it doesn’t look likely that the Stateline picks up major snow during the evening, the snow could fall at a time during which winds will be ramping up rather dramatically. That could make for a period of treacherous travel due to reduced visibility, blowing and drifting.

Should snow be falling Wednesday evening, visibility would be a major issue, as winds will... — Should snow be falling Wednesday evening, visibility would be a major issue, as winds will increase to 20 to 25mph.(Mark Henderson, WIFR)

The storm system’s dry slot is to move overhead early Thursday morning, meaning a sizeable break in the action is to be expected, which would turn out to be good news for Thursday morning commuters.

We're to find ourselves in what's called the system's dry slow late Wednesday night through... — We're to find ourselves in what's called the system's dry slow late Wednesday night through early Thursday morning.(Mark Henderson, WIFR)

We remain in the system's dry slot through at least sunrise. — We remain in the system's dry slot through at least sunrise.(Mark Henderson, WIFR)

We'll remain dry early Thursday morning, though residual rain or snow showers will be possible... — We'll remain dry early Thursday morning, though residual rain or snow showers will be possible as the day progresses.(Mark Henderson, WIFR)

Once the workday gets underway, we’ll pay attention to the possibility for a few hit or miss rain or snow showers to occur just about anywhere, but it should be stated emphatically that this activity will be quite a bit lighter and much more scattered.

Scattered rain or snow showers are to continue off and on for much of Thursday morning. — Scattered rain or snow showers are to continue off and on for much of Thursday morning.(Mark Henderson, WIFR)

A few residual rain or snow showers remain possible Thursday afternoon, but dry times are... — A few residual rain or snow showers remain possible Thursday afternoon, but dry times are guaranteed.(Mark Henderson, WIFR)

Aside from a few flurries or light snow showers, precipitation should be largely finished by... — Aside from a few flurries or light snow showers, precipitation should be largely finished by Thursday evening.(Mark Henderson, WIFR)

As far as accumulations go, our latest thinking, in line with recent model trends, suggest that most of us will fall short of picking up an inch of snow. The combination of a more northerly storm track, above freezing temperatures (likely reaching close to 40°), and liquid precipitation will preclude major accumulations. However, far western and northwestern sections of the area do stand to potentially have enough snow to shovel.

Most areas are to see under an inch of snow from this system, though areas to Rockford's west... — Most areas are to see under an inch of snow from this system, though areas to Rockford's west and north stand to see a bit more.(Mark Henderson, WIFR)

With that all said, it’s still premature to sound the all-clear once and for all. It still wouldn’t take that much of a southward shift in the storm’s track to place our area into a position more favorable for snowfall. The problem is that the trend in recent model runs has been one that’s been pushing the storm track farther north, which places residents of Central Wisconsin as well as Northern and Central Iowa in the most favorable spots to pick up the heaviest snowfall. Regardless, the situation’s still somewhat fluid, and close observation of this system will continue from the First Alert Weather Center.

The Stateline looks to miss out on the most significant snow, though you won't have to go far... — The Stateline looks to miss out on the most significant snow, though you won't have to go far to find some inflated totals.(Mark Henderson, WIFR)

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