Rain, thunder on the way Monday as temps warm

ROCKFORD, Ill. (WIFR) - The Stateline was treated to an extremely pleasant Sunday, though changes are in order as a new workweek approaches.

There are two noteworthy storm systems set to impact the Stateline this week, one Sunday night into Monday, and another late Wednesday through Thursday.

There’s little doubt about the impacts we’ll see from the first storm system, at least in terms of what form precipitation takes. This is to be a rainmaker, and there could be some rather healthy rain that comes out of it. Showers are to develop, at least in scattered form, as we approach the midnight hour.

As the night progresses, this is ultimately to build into a steadier, more widespread rain, which will quite likely carry us well into Monday morning.

A break’s to ensue late in the morning through early Monday afternoon, but that may not be it for rain for the day.

A second round of showers and perhaps some thunderstorms will develop at some point during the afternoon hours Monday. While severe weather is not likely to occur, there’s a small chance that one or two of the fast-moving storms could produce some hail or a brief strong wind gust. As for temperatures, warm southerly winds are likely to send temperatures surging to near 50°.

Things look to quiet down considerably Monday night, and aside from a few residual rain or snow showers early in the day Tuesday, things look to be generally benign Tuesday, despite there being an extremely stubborn deck of clouds remaining locked in.

Attention then turns to the week’s second system, which, at this distance in time, is an intriguing one to monitor. All forecast models are locked in on a storm system which will likely impact a good portion of the Midwest, including the Stateline. Precipitation will likely begin late Wednesday or Wednesday night, and could very well continue well into Thursday.

What’s not yet known is whether the precipitation comes as snow, rain, or a mixture of the two. Should precipitation come primarily as snow, it’s possible several inches may fall. Should it come more as rain, obviously accumulations would be slashed dramatically. It’ll all hinge on the exact track the storm system takes.

An area of low pressure is to develop Wednesday morning over the Central and Southern Plains. While some models suggest the area of low pressure will track east-northeastward through central Illinois and Indiana, then heading into the Eastern Great Lakes, others bring the low on a sharply more northerly trajectory. A more southerly track would favor more snow here in the Stateline, while the more northerly solution would favor more of a wintry mix.

Eventually, models should show more agreement regarding the storm’s track. It’ll be at that point, most likely sometime Tuesday, when we’ll more confidently be able to discuss accumulations. What we can say at this stage in the game is that there will likely be at least some impacts in the Wednesday/Thursday time period.

Copyright 2023 WIFR. All rights reserved.