Transition from rain to snow likely this evening, accumulations possible

ROCKFORD, Ill. (WIFR) - December’s not only been a mild month thus far, it’s been a rather quiet one. That is, until now.

Much of the Stateline’s been on the receiving end of nearly an inch of rainfall over the past 24 hours, and more’s on the way. Steady rain has returned to the area late Wednesday afternoon and will continue through a good chunk of the evening, with locally heavy downpours a very good bet at times.

Steady rainfall is to continue throughout the evening, and will be heavy at times. — Steady rainfall is to continue throughout the evening, and will be heavy at times.(Mark Henderson, WIFR)

What happens in the hours that follow is becoming more and more interesting, as there appears to be growing evidence that strong cooling is likely to cause a rapid transition from rain to snow, and for there to be a three to five hour window during which there could be some rather heavy snow.

A transition from rain to snow will quickly take place very late in the evening hours. — A transition from rain to snow will quickly take place very late in the evening hours.(Mark Henderson, WIFR)

The entire area will see snow come 1:00am Thursday. — The entire area will see snow come 1:00am Thursday.(Mark Henderson, WIFR)

Most, if not all of the snow will be gone by 3:00am. — Most, if not all of the snow will be gone by 3:00am.(Mark Henderson, WIFR)

While wet, warm ground and fairly mild air temperatures will likely prohibit any major accumulations, the heavy intensity at which the snow will fall would likely offset or overcome these factors, at least to some extent. That’s why our forecast calls for an inch or so of slushy accumulation, with an isolated two inch total not out of the question. The good news is that this looks to be long gone in time for the morning commute.

By 5:00am, the snow will have left the entire area. — By 5:00am, the snow will have left the entire area.(Mark Henderson, WIFR)

Thursday’s to be our sixth straight completely overcast day, and it’s to be a considerably colder, yet seasonable one. Clouds may yield a few flurries or light snow showers during the day, though nothing of any consequence is on the docket. Temperatures are to remain steady in the middle 30s for most of the day.

Cloudy skies are to dominate Thursday, with a few snow flurries possible from time to time. — Cloudy skies are to dominate Thursday, with a few snow flurries possible from time to time.(Mark Henderson, WIFR)

Thursday evening, however, may feature a slightly more organized round of snow move through. To be clear, this isn’t to be a big deal, but it’s not to be completely ignored either. Some spots may see up to a half inch of accumulation Thursday evening, which, given the cooler temperatures in place, could be enough to have a bit of an impact on our roadways.

Chances for more organized snow go up a bit Thursday evening. — Chances for more organized snow go up a bit Thursday evening.(Mark Henderson, WIFR)

Friday, we’ll make it a full week without sunshine, and temperatures are to take yet another step back. A few flurries or light snow showers are again a possibility, though accumulation isn’t seen to be an issue this go around. The big story Friday will be our temperatures, which will, for the first time since November 30, fail to get out of the 20s.

Another batch of flurries or light snow showers can be expected Friday. — Another batch of flurries or light snow showers can be expected Friday.(Mark Henderson, WIFR)

From there on out, highs are to be in the 20s with lows in the single digits and teens through next Wednesday, with even colder temperatures to follow. Temperatures on Thursday, Friday, and Christmas Eve aren’t to get out of the teens, and lows are to head close to or even slightly below 0°.

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