Potent storm system to bring rain and snow to the Stateline

ROCKFORD, Ill. (WIFR) - It’s hard to believe we’re already a week into December. It sure hasn’t felt like December, that’s for sure!

For a third straight day, temperatures in the Stateline reached the 40s, and we have every reason to believe several more days of 40s are ahead of us. However, for the first time this month, things are to turn more active.

Skies, which have been so cloudy this entire week, have cleared over most of the area Wednesday evening, allowing temperatures to cool far more expeditiously than in nights past. Eventually, our temperature and dew point are to collide, setting the stage for another round of fog, some potentially dense, likely reducing visibility and causing a few slick spots to occur on our roads, given the sub-freezing temperatures in place. As a precaution, it’d be wise to allow extra time to get to work Thursday morning.

During the daytime hours Thursday, it’s possible we see sunshine for a few hours, especially early in the day. It’d be the first glimpses of sun of the week, and almost certainly the last.

Clouds return as the afternoon progresses, as a storm system gathers steam to our southwest, and begins lifting northeastward. Computer forecast models have been slowing the system down quite a bit, now making it more likely the daytime hours are to be entirely dry.

Precipitation is to begin during the mid to late evening hours, likely as a rain/snow mix.

As the night progresses, we’ll see a transition to all rain for a sizeable period of time.

Once past the midnight hour, a transition back over to snow is to take place from north to south. Snow’s to be falling over most of southern Wisconsin and far northwestern Illinois, while precipitation remains as rain over the majority of the Stateline.

As we creep closer to sunrise and in the hours that follow, a gradual transition to all snow is to continue over the vast majority of the area. While major accumulations aren’t in the cards, the morning commute could be a slushy one.

Finally, by the early afternoon, snow will have moved out of the area, though clouds are certain to persist.

As for accumulations, they’re not expected to be significant for multiple reasons. First, the fact that snow’s to fall on wet, relatively warm ground will cause some melting of the snow early on in the event. Secondly, the short duration of the snow will limit the amount of time snow has to accumulate. Presently, the thought is that many spots could get an inch or two, with locally higher amounts possible the farther north you go into Wisconsin.

NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center gives the Rockford Metro just a 1% chance of seeing two inches or more. Meanwhile, those chances go up to 50% as you get up to Madison and points north and west of there.

Keep in mind, just a 20-40 mile southward shift in the storm track would significantly increase our chances of more substantial snowfall, while a track farther north would essentially mean no snow at all here. It’s still a somewhat fluid situation, and one worthy of our continued attention.

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