Quiet Wednesday ahead of potent storm system set to arrive Thursday

ROCKFORD, Ill. (WIFR) - For as sunny as the past weekend was, it was quite chilly. Now, as we’ve entered a new workweek, we’ve replaced sunshine with clouds, but we’ve seen temperatures warm nicely.

For a second straight day, temperatures reached into the 40s across the vast majority of the Stateline, despite an abundance of clouds. While skies may clear briefly Tuesday night, low clouds and fog are likely to redevelop well after midnight.

While there are certainly some hopes that mixed sunshine may emerge during the afternoon hours, we’re likely to remain mostly cloudy for the vast majority of the day. Still, temperatures are ticketed for the 40s for a third straight day.

After a cloudy Wednesday night, expect more of the same Thursday. However, Thursday promises to be less tranquil than in previous days. An approaching storm system will be coming into view from the southwest as the day progresses, but the expectation is that, aside from a few sprinkles or flurries here or there, the vast majority of the day will be dry.

Eventually, precipitation is to reach the Stateline around or shortly after the dinner hour Thursday. While details aren’t set in stone as to how the storm pans out, there’s certainly more clarity than in previous days.

It’s nearly certain that precipitation is to start as rain Thursday evening. Once the rain begins, it’s unlikely to stop for the rest of the night. It’s also possible that a few rumbles of thunder could be embedded within this activity, though no severe weather is to occur.

Come Friday morning, we’re still likely to have rain in and around the area, though the rain/snow line will have begun to shift southward, and will find itself dangerously close to the Stateline. All it’d take would be a subtle 15-25 mile southward shift in the storm track to place us in a favorable location for snow, so this time period will be one very closely monitored.

As Friday morning progresses, there’ll ultimately be a transition from rain over to snow across most of the area. Precipitation should wind down around or shortly after the noon hour.

Regarding any potential snow accumulations, it’s still a tough call, though given what we’ve seen in recent modeling, it does not look like we’re in for anything major. Factors working against major snow accumulation are the fact that snow will be falling onto wet, somewhat warm ground as well as the fact that air temperatures are likely to be above freezing for the storm’s duration. With that said, I do think it’s possible some spots could pick up an inch or two, especially north of the Wisconsin border.

With that said, we’ll still need to keep a VERY close eye on future model runs. A minor shift in the storm track to the south would spell a higher potential for accumulating snow, while a minor northward jaunt would likely mean we’ll see all rain. The moral of the story is that this is not etched in stone by any means, and that close monitoring of the situation is warranted. Rest assured we’ll be doing just that in the hours and days ahead.

The remainder of Friday is to be quiet, and generally tranquil conditions are expected for the weekend. It’s next week when precipitation chances rise once again. We’re monitoring another potent storm system that is likely to impact us early next week. The early read on this one is that this is to come as all rain, and perhaps quite a bit of it. But forecasts at this distance in time aren’t to be taken as gospel.

What’s almost certain is that this active pattern is to have some staying power, with the Climate Prediction Center indicating an extremely high probability of above normal precipitation through December 16.

With that said, temperatures are likely to remain milder than normal throughout that period, so we could very well be looking at most, if not all of the precipitation coming as rain, not snow. It’s a development worth watching, to be sure.

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