Storms for some to end weekend before a week with two seasons

Published: Sep. 17, 2022 at 7:31 PM CDT
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ROCKFORD, Ill. (WIFR) - Minus a few showers in the late afternoon on Saturday, we had another seasonably mild day with temperatures in the upper 70s and lower 80s. The same can be said for Sunday and we’ll introduce another rain chance at night for some. Following that, we’ll quickly end our summer conditions and turn the fall switch on.

LATE SATURDAY NIGHT RAIN

Activity out in Iowa will continue moving eastward tonight and into the overnight hours. For the most part, a few showers and isolated downpours are likely for some this evening and overnight. Severe weather is not expected with any of this activity and it will get out of here before sunrise on Sunday. Otherwise, expect overnight lows to reach the mid-60s across the Stateline.

A few shower and storms are possible after midnight and the overnight hours Sunday.
A few shower and storms are possible after midnight and the overnight hours Sunday.(Ethan Rosuck, WIFR)
A few shower and storms are possible after midnight and the overnight hours Sunday.
A few shower and storms are possible after midnight and the overnight hours Sunday.(Ethan Rosuck, WIFR)

SUNDAY RAIN CHANCES

Over the last 24 hours, our rain chances for the immediate Rockford area have gone down a bit. That’s because the severe storm risk has shifted south to only include our southern counties. Ogle and Lee Counties are under a level one Marginal Risk for severe storms Sunday night with a level two Slight Risk existing for areas further south. I think it’s entirely possible that many hometowns will be rain-free Sunday night. In a nutshell: the further south from Rockford you are, the higher rainfall chance exists and the further north gives a small rain chance.

The daytime Sunday will be dry with storm chances going up toward the evening.
The daytime Sunday will be dry with storm chances going up toward the evening.(Ethan Rosuck, WIFR)
Storms will move in Sunday evening and continue through about midnight or so. A higher severe...
Storms will move in Sunday evening and continue through about midnight or so. A higher severe risk exists south.(Ethan Rosuck, WIFR)
Storms will move in Sunday evening and continue through about midnight or so. A higher severe...
Storms will move in Sunday evening and continue through about midnight or so. A higher severe risk exists south.(Ethan Rosuck, WIFR)

A small gusty wind and hail threat exists with any severe storm along with heavy rain. The timing on Sunday’s rain looks to be anytime 5-6 p.m. continuing into the evening and overnight hours. It will depend on how fast this front moves through the region. Stay weather aware during that time otherwise, Sunday looks to have highs in the low-80s and partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies.

Our southern counties are in a level one Marginal Risk while a higher risk exists further south.
Our southern counties are in a level one Marginal Risk while a higher risk exists further south.(Ethan Rosuck, WIFR)

SUMMER TO START THE WEEK

As we approach the end of summer, our weather pattern will continue summer for as long as it can before Fall arrives. Monday calls for mild highs in the low-80s again with mostly sunny skies. An upper-level ridge will also begin to build on Monday will set the stage for our temperatures through early Wednesday. After a dry day Monday, a wave of showers is possible for Monday night and into early Tuesday. It’s too early to talk about a severe weather threat but at this time it looks low.

After that rain chance gets out of here Tuesday morning, another mostly sunny day is on tap and it will be a hot and humid one. We’re thinking that high temperatures across the Stateline will likely be in the upper 80s to near 90°. Not to mention that dew points in the upper 70s and lower 90s will give us mid-90s heat index values possibly Tuesday. How humid and warm we get will depend on how quickly the rain chances Tuesday morning exit here.

Southerly winds will increase our dew points for Tuesday with highs near 90°.
Southerly winds will increase our dew points for Tuesday with highs near 90°.(Ethan Rosuck, WIFR)

After Tuesday, our next cold front will pack quite a punch with it when it moves through the region Wednesday. While the timing of its passage is still uncertain, we’ll still likely see a mild day Wednesday just not another day near 90°. With this in mind, it’s likely most of us Wednesday will see highs in the mid-to-upper 70s with warmer temperatures likely south. This cold front will also come through dry and give us partly cloudy skies Wednesday.

We'll warm up to near 90° Tuesday before a cold front will give us fall-like temperatures to...
We'll warm up to near 90° Tuesday before a cold front will give us fall-like temperatures to welcome Fall Thursday.(Ethan Rosuck, WIFR)

FALL ARRIVES ON TIME

Behind the cold front, our winds will come out of the north and will get rid of the humid air mass and exchange it with a cooler and drier one. The cooler conditions will start Thursday which is also the Fall Equinox marking the official start of Fall. Thursday will for sure feel like it with highs only in the low-to-mid 60s and the same be said for Friday. Low temperatures starting then will be in the mid-to-upper 40s (and locally lower 40s) in outlying spots.

After a cold front moves through, we'll have Canadian air move in getting rid of our humid air...
After a cold front moves through, we'll have Canadian air move in getting rid of our humid air from Tuesday.(Ethan Rosuck, WIFR)

We’ll remain dry through Thursday with unsettled weather possibly returning here starting Friday and into next weekend where we’ll warm up a smidge back into the 70s.