Weekend looks decent, storm chances increase starting on July 4th

Published: Jul. 1, 2022 at 4:28 PM CDT
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ROCKFORD, Ill. (WIFR) - The extended weekend is finally here and for the most part, it will be a winner with outdoor plans not having impacts to start. However, some much-needed rainfall is in the forecast starting on Independence Day Monday and beyond into July’s first full week.

Friday night looks good with cloudy skies to start but remaining dry. Clearing skies will take place overnight making for a mostly sunny sky on Saturday. While Saturday will be generally dry, a weak upper-level front may bring a few showers later Saturday afternoon and into the evening. However, the confidence on this is pretty low. Most of the area will remain dry Saturday but keep an eye on the skies in the afternoon and evening. High temperatures Saturday will be seasonable in the mid-80s.

A few showers are possible Saturday afternoon and early evening.
A few showers are possible Saturday afternoon and early evening.(Ethan Rosuck, WIFR)
A few showers are possible Saturday afternoon and early evening.
A few showers are possible Saturday afternoon and early evening.(Ethan Rosuck, WIFR)
Rain chances will go away Saturday night.
Rain chances will go away Saturday night.(Ethan Rosuck, WIFR)

Sunday will be the sunniest and driest day of the weekend with very little precipitation issues to worry about. Highs on Sunday will be warmer in the upper 80s to near 90° and it will also be a smidge more humid. Overall though, not bad. After that though, the Independence Day holiday will be day worth watching as storm chances to ramp up on that day.

July 4th weekend in a nutshell.
July 4th weekend in a nutshell.(Ethan Rosuck, WIFR)
Sunday looks like the best day of the holiday weekend overall.
Sunday looks like the best day of the holiday weekend overall.(Ethan Rosuck, WIFR)

Monday calls for the hottest and most humid day of the weekend with highs near 90° and dew points rising into the 70s once again. With the atmosphere primed with moisture in the air, any rainfall that occurs will further increase those dew points bringing the heavy rainfall potential into view. While it’s still not worthy to cancel outdoor plans Monday, anyone who’s planning on hosting a fireworks show that night needs to stay up-to-date on the forecast as it’s the nighttime Monday when rainfall potential goes up.

Perceptible Water values will be high with lots of moisture to work with.
Perceptible Water values will be high with lots of moisture to work with.(Ethan Rosuck, WIFR)
Late Monday through much of next week will see some potentially decent rainfall.
Late Monday through much of next week will see some potentially decent rainfall.(Ethan Rosuck, WIFR)
We'll turn more humid around July 4th with any rounds of rain we see further increasing the dew...
We'll turn more humid around July 4th with any rounds of rain we see further increasing the dew points.(Ethan Rosuck, WIFR)

Those heavy rainfall chances will continue into Tuesday and into parts of next week at all. Should these rounds of rain turn heavy, there will be a localized flooding potential in spots and depending on the time of the day, severe potential can’t be ruled out either. Rain chances exist in the forecast each day through Thursday and any rain will be needed because we finished June more than three inches below normal.

Have a great weekend everyone but keep an eye out for rain chances Saturday late afternoon and evening along with later on Monday, too.

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