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Heat to rebuild into the area, humidity to follow

Triple digit heat indices appearing more and more likely Tuesday
Published: Jun. 19, 2022 at 11:06 PM CDT
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ROCKFORD, Ill. (WIFR) - You simply could not ask for a better weekend than the one we’ve just concluded. Sunshine dominated all weekend long with temperatures within a few degrees of normal both Saturday and Saturday.

After a brief hiatus, though, heat’s due back into the area, and in a big way. The good news, however, is that, at least at first, the humidity will hold off.

Bright sunshine’s expected to dominate yet again Monday, and as winds swing back around to the southwest, temperatures should have no trouble taking off. When all’s said and done, we’re to expect temperatures to top out in the middle to perhaps even upper 90s. That said, with dew points remaining in the 50s to lower 60s all day long, humidity won’t be a major factor at all. We’re to expect heat index values to largely mirror the air temperature thanks to that drier air in place.

Another day of sunshine is in the cards on Monday.
Another day of sunshine is in the cards on Monday.(Mark Henderson, WIFR)
Temperatures will head into the 90s on Monday, but humidity will be very much in check.
Temperatures will head into the 90s on Monday, but humidity will be very much in check.(Mark Henderson, WIFR)

Temperatures will be slower to fall Monday night, and won’t likely fall much below 70°, giving us a much higher springboard from which to start our temperature climb Tuesday.

We won't fall below 70° Monday night into Tuesday morning as humidity starts to rise.
We won't fall below 70° Monday night into Tuesday morning as humidity starts to rise.(Mark Henderson, WIFR)

Sunshine will again dominate from start to finish Tuesday, and temperatures will quickly ascend as a result. A stronger wind is to blow Tuesday, resulting in not only hotter temperatures, but more in the way of humidity. While temperatures Tuesday will top out in similar territory to Monday, heat index values could very well exceed 100°. No heat-related advisories have been hoisted just yet, but it wouldn’t come as a surprise to see one issued at some point Monday.

Sunshine will prevail from start to finish again on Tuesday, signaling another hot day.
Sunshine will prevail from start to finish again on Tuesday, signaling another hot day.(Mark Henderson, WIFR)
We'll head well into the 90s again Tuesday, but humidity levels will surge.
We'll head well into the 90s again Tuesday, but humidity levels will surge.(Mark Henderson, WIFR)

A southeastward descending cold front Tuesday night will bring clouds our way in the evening, and perhaps a few clusters of showers and storms to follow. Much as has been the case with recent frontal systems, the nighttime arrival is one that suggests that storms should be in a weakening state as they approach and eventually arrive. As such, the Stateline’s in just a Level 1, Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday evening. Still, it’s a situation worth monitoring, and that we will.

Showers and storms will be on approach late Tuesday evening.
Showers and storms will be on approach late Tuesday evening.(Mark Henderson, WIFR)

We certainly wouldn’t turn down rainfall, though, that’s to be sure! We’ve not yet reached the two-thirds marker for the month of June, and already, we’re sporting a monthly rainfall deficit of more that two inches! Put otherwise, we’ve seen less than 38% of our normal rainfall for the month. Our year-to-date deficit’s also growing, and rapidly at that. For 2022, we’re now more than four inches in the hole.

We're already more than two inches in the hole for the month of June, and more than four inches...
We're already more than two inches in the hole for the month of June, and more than four inches shy of normal for 2022, thanks to the recent dry spell.(Mark Henderson, WIFR)

These deficits aren’t quite enough to put us in back into a state of Moderate Drought just yet, but the situation is indeed worsening. Presently, more than 17% of Illinois is considered to be abnormally dry. While that’s not a high number, that figure is more than 5% higher than the 12.02% just a week before.

We remain abnormally dry for now, but could face moderate drought in spots in the not too...
We remain abnormally dry for now, but could face moderate drought in spots in the not too distant future.(Mark Henderson, WIFR)

Unfortunately, there’s doesn’t appear to be any wholesale relief in our immediate future, and quite possibly longer range as well. Tuesday night’s rain chance is the only one of the workweek, and longer range projections suggest below normal precipitation to continue through the end of June and possibly into early July.

Unfortunately, there aren't any signs of any appreciable moisture in our forecast for the next...
Unfortunately, there aren't any signs of any appreciable moisture in our forecast for the next two weeks.(Mark Henderson, WIFR)

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