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FIRST ALERT WEATHER DAY: First line of showers moves through before main severe threat overnight

Updated: Jun. 17, 2021 at 7:42 PM CDT
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ROCKFORD, Ill. (WIFR) - While some early evening storms move through the region on a weakening level, the main event is still in the forecast overnight. Some of these storms may pack a punch with damaging winds, hail and potentially flash flooding. This also comes as the heat and humidity return along with drought conditions that continue to get worse.

Let’s get straight to it. Something the models didn’t project over the last several days was the late afternoon and early evening convection that brings the first line of showers through the Stateline around dinner time. These are quick-moving and are non-severe and will have some light rain with it. To our north and west, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch exists and depending on what occurs in parts of Minnesota and Iowa over the evening, it MAY get expanded but it’s not guaranteed.

The initial line of storms will be here and may help stabilize our atmosphere a bit.
The initial line of storms will be here and may help stabilize our atmosphere a bit.(Ethan Rosuck, WIFR)

Should there be any more convection in Minnesota and whether it consolidates into a complex of storms to move into the region overnight, that’s our main focus. We will know that over the next 2-3 hours before the 23 News Update at 10. There also could be some additional storms that develop in northern Iowa, this is something overall we will need to watch.

The Enhanced Risk for severe weather is still in play from the Storm Prediction Center for any overnight storms. Should this occur the biggest threat will still be damaging winds, as we’ve discussed in previous days. Under any storm winds could gust 60-65 miles per hour or even higher than that. Now is the time just in case to secure any outdoor loose objects or bring them inside.

Overnight storms are on the way for the Stateline.
Overnight storms are on the way for the Stateline.(Ethan Rosuck, WIFR)

Now is also the time to make sure you have multiple ways to receive warnings or weather updates. We’ll have updates on-air, on social media and on our app. Click here to download the app on Google Play or click here to download it on the Apple App Store. The extra emphasis on this is because the severe threat is overnight when most people will be sleeping.

Anytime after midnight through 5-6 a.m. Friday is the main window for storms to move through, should they develop out west. We also can’t rule out some hail to be a threat along with flash flooding. A rainfall potential of 1-2 inches an hour is possible under any given thunderstorm. While we do need the rain, any rain that falls in that quick fashion will not get soaked into the soil. That’s because our grounds are incredibly dry. The newest drought monitor was released and shows an Extreme Drought in now in play for much of Northern Illinois, including a snippet of Boone and DeKalb Counties.

A snippet of Boone County and DeKalb County are under an extreme drought, along with parts of...
A snippet of Boone County and DeKalb County are under an extreme drought, along with parts of Chicagoland.(Ethan Rosuck, WIFR)
Storms are likely to move through the Stateline overnight.
Storms are likely to move through the Stateline overnight.(Ethan Rosuck, WIFR)
The line will sweep through overnight through early Friday morning.
The line will sweep through overnight through early Friday morning.(Ethan Rosuck, WIFR)
Strong winds, downpours and some hail over parts of the Stateline are likely with these storms.
Strong winds, downpours and some hail over parts of the Stateline are likely with these storms.(Ethan Rosuck, WIFR)

With the water not being able to get soaked into the ground, it may run-off and cause some flash flooding. Stay tuned Thursday evening as we watch for thunderstorm development for an overnight severe potential. Otherwise, clearing skies for Friday with highs well into the 90s again with high humidity levels. The heat and humidity will also continue into the weekend with our next cold front to come knocking Sunday, which will bring our next rain chance unfortunately coinciding with Father’s Day.

Could have rates of 1-2 inches an hour, our grounds will have a hard time holding that water.
Could have rates of 1-2 inches an hour, our grounds will have a hard time holding that water.(Ethan Rosuck, WIFR)
Storms will gradually exit early Friday morning.
Storms will gradually exit early Friday morning.(Ethan Rosuck, WIFR)

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