Pleasant mild weather to persist through holiday weekend
Dynamic storm to pass nervously close to Stateline early next week
ROCKFORD, Ill. (WIFR) - We’re nearing the end of what’s ultimately to be one of the five warmest Novembers our area’s ever seen. While Thanksgiving started on a bit of a gray note, sunshine along with a steady southwesterly breeze quickly sent temperatures soaring into the middle and upper 40s in the afternoon. It’s the ninth straight day with above normal temperatures in the Stateline, and the 20th day of the month to feature temperatures at or above normal.
The jet stream remains aligned in such a way that keeps upper level winds blowing out of the southwest here, thus shutting off any cold air outbreaks of any significance.
A weak cold front’s to pass through the area overnight or very early Friday, temporarily turning winds around to the northwest. Still, with an abundance of sunshine present and a lack of any notable snow cover immediately to our north, temperatures should still remain comfortably mild in the middle 40s.
Any “cooling” Friday’s to be brief, as winds quickly shift back to the southwest Saturday, which should allow temperatures to at least approach 50° areawide, and likely reach into the 50s in a few locales.
Pacific air remains in tow through the weekend, promising mild temperatures are to continue, though changes appear likely to arrive next week as a storm system approaches from the southwest.
Sunshine will greet us early Sunday, though clouds will be rather quick to fill in later in the day as a large increasingly dynamic system begins its northeastward ascent.
Precipitation’s to flirt with the area come Sunday night, however most model projections keep rainfall just to the south and east of our immediate region.
As the storm system continues its slow northeastward crawl, it’ll be tugging much colder air down from Canada, quickly changing rain over to snow over a large portion of Indiana and Michigan come Monday.
In addition to widespread “system snow”, many in the Hoosier State will also contend with lake effect snow as cold northerly winds establish over the still warm Lake Michgan waters. Significant snow is likely over a good portion of northwest Indiana Monday into Monday night.
You’ll notice the Stateline appears likely to miss any direct impacts from this storm system, aside from an extensive amount of cloudiness Sunday Night through most of Monday. However, it’s far too early to pronounce us clear of any threat for rain or snowfall. With the storm still three to four days away from arriving in the Midwest and Great Lakes, there’s still time for the ultimate track of the system to change. All it would take is a track adjustment of 60 to 75 miles westward to dramatically change the forecast narrative around here. At this juncture, we don’t believe that to be the case, but it’s close enough that it’s still worthy of close attention.
One thing’s for sure, though. This storm, along with a temporarily realigning jet stream, will send some awfully cold air our way to close out November and open December. Monday’s high temperatures, snow or no snow, are likely to be the coldest here since around Valentine’s Day!
The good news for those who might not be so thrilled with next that cold air’s on the way is that the chill will only be temporary. 40s are to return by midweek, and a 50° temperature over December’s first weekend is not out of the question.
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