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Pleasant mild weather to persist through holiday weekend

Dynamic storm to pass nervously close to Stateline early next week
Published: Nov. 26, 2020 at 7:08 PM CST
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ROCKFORD, Ill. (WIFR) - We’re nearing the end of what’s ultimately to be one of the five warmest Novembers our area’s ever seen. While Thanksgiving started on a bit of a gray note, sunshine along with a steady southwesterly breeze quickly sent temperatures soaring into the middle and upper 40s in the afternoon. It’s the ninth straight day with above normal temperatures in the Stateline, and the 20th day of the month to feature temperatures at or above normal.

The jet stream remains aligned in such a way that keeps upper level winds blowing out of the southwest here, thus shutting off any cold air outbreaks of any significance.

Southwesterly jet stream winds here have flooded the area with mild air yet again this...
Southwesterly jet stream winds here have flooded the area with mild air yet again this Thanksgiving.(Mark Henderson, WIFR)

A weak cold front’s to pass through the area overnight or very early Friday, temporarily turning winds around to the northwest. Still, with an abundance of sunshine present and a lack of any notable snow cover immediately to our north, temperatures should still remain comfortably mild in the middle 40s.

It won't be cold, but Friday's temperatures will be at least a touch cooler than those seen...
It won't be cold, but Friday's temperatures will be at least a touch cooler than those seen here Thursday.(Mark Henderson, WIFR)

Any “cooling” Friday’s to be brief, as winds quickly shift back to the southwest Saturday, which should allow temperatures to at least approach 50° areawide, and likely reach into the 50s in a few locales.

Wall to wall sunshine along with gusty southwesterly breezes will send temperatures soaring...
Wall to wall sunshine along with gusty southwesterly breezes will send temperatures soaring back into the 50s on Saturday.(Mark Henderson, WIFR)

Pacific air remains in tow through the weekend, promising mild temperatures are to continue, though changes appear likely to arrive next week as a storm system approaches from the southwest.

With Pacific air firmly in place, temperatures are to remain well above normal through this...
With Pacific air firmly in place, temperatures are to remain well above normal through this weekend.(Mark Henderson, WIFR)

Sunshine will greet us early Sunday, though clouds will be rather quick to fill in later in the day as a large increasingly dynamic system begins its northeastward ascent.

As a dynamic storm system lifts northeastward Sunday, skies here are likely to cloud over...
As a dynamic storm system lifts northeastward Sunday, skies here are likely to cloud over considerably.(Mark Henderson, WIFR)

Precipitation’s to flirt with the area come Sunday night, however most model projections keep rainfall just to the south and east of our immediate region.

We'll certainly see more cloudiness late Sunday, but right now, forecast models send this...
We'll certainly see more cloudiness late Sunday, but right now, forecast models send this dynamic storm system just to our east.(Mark Henderson, WIFR)

As the storm system continues its slow northeastward crawl, it’ll be tugging much colder air down from Canada, quickly changing rain over to snow over a large portion of Indiana and Michigan come Monday.

Heaviest snow appears to remain just to our east, though we will need to keep a close eye on...
Heaviest snow appears to remain just to our east, though we will need to keep a close eye on this, as even a subtle shift in track could send snow our way.(Mark Henderson, WIFR)

In addition to widespread “system snow”, many in the Hoosier State will also contend with lake effect snow as cold northerly winds establish over the still warm Lake Michgan waters. Significant snow is likely over a good portion of northwest Indiana Monday into Monday night.

Several hours of snow, including some heavy lake effect snow, appear likely Monday over much of...
Several hours of snow, including some heavy lake effect snow, appear likely Monday over much of Indiana.(Mark Henderson, WIFR)

You’ll notice the Stateline appears likely to miss any direct impacts from this storm system, aside from an extensive amount of cloudiness Sunday Night through most of Monday. However, it’s far too early to pronounce us clear of any threat for rain or snowfall. With the storm still three to four days away from arriving in the Midwest and Great Lakes, there’s still time for the ultimate track of the system to change. All it would take is a track adjustment of 60 to 75 miles westward to dramatically change the forecast narrative around here. At this juncture, we don’t believe that to be the case, but it’s close enough that it’s still worthy of close attention.

One thing’s for sure, though. This storm, along with a temporarily realigning jet stream, will send some awfully cold air our way to close out November and open December. Monday’s high temperatures, snow or no snow, are likely to be the coldest here since around Valentine’s Day!

The jet stream will buckle in a big way early next week, sending a chunk of cold air barreling...
The jet stream will buckle in a big way early next week, sending a chunk of cold air barreling southward out of Canada.(Mark Henderson, WIFR)

The good news for those who might not be so thrilled with next that cold air’s on the way is that the chill will only be temporary. 40s are to return by midweek, and a 50° temperature over December’s first weekend is not out of the question.

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