Rain's on the way, perhaps the heaviest since back in early November! Model projections have come down a bit, which is no big surprise, but remain very healthy! Our latest in-house Timecast model generates more than 2" of rain in spots, and that's just through mid-afternoon Sunday. Many more showers and t-storms could occur thereafter! There's a solid chance that more rain could fall than we saw in the entire month of March! The rains won't be unabated though, many rain-free hours are likely! The heaviest rains appear at this time to fall overnight Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Severe thunderstorms are roaming the Central Plains Thursday night, and are expected to regenerate Friday! The severe weather threat area expands eastward Friday, but remains West of the Mississippi River. The main event appears to be Saturday (and perhaps again Sunday). The Storm Prediction Center issues convective outlooks multiple times daily for the current day, twice daily for the next day, and once a day for Day 3! This is the Day 3 plot for severe weather, showing a moderate risk for a good chunk of the Plains, and a slight risk intruding into Northern Illinois! A tornado outbreak is appearing more and more likely for folks in Kansas and Oklahoma this weekend, though tornadoes won't be ruled out even in these parts! The current thinking is that our primary severe risk would be for damaging winds and hail, to go along with the very heavy rainfall!