Sunshine made its first appearance of the workweek Wednesday, and temperatures nicely responded into the mid-30s as a result! All indications point to a continuation of the sunny trend Thursday, with even warmer temperatures expected! Current model guidance suggests that upper 30s are likely for Thursday, though it should be noted that the models have exhibited a bit of a cold bias of late, meaning a local 40° is not to be ruled out!
A pattern change has been well advertised by our models for the better part of a week now, suggesting the mild pattern we've grown so accustomed to will break down in favor of a chunk of Arctic air from Canada! A cold front's passage early Friday morning sets those changes into motion, and could even spawn a few flurries or light snow showers at times Friday. Accumulations would be minimal, if any, and the snow is really just of secondary importance. The most noticeable change will be the colder temperatures that take up residence here following the front's passage! Friday's 26° high will snow an impressive string of 19 consecutive days above normal!
Things get even colder Saturday, though the sun is by all expectations expected to be a big player in our weather for the weekend! Despite the sunshine both Saturday and Sunday, the weekend exhibits a strong potential of being the coldest of the winter! Thus far, the coldest weekend of the winter was back on January 14-15, with highs of 18° and 31°, respectively, adding to a total of 49°. Our current forecasts of 21° and 28° for Saturday and Sunday would tie that benchmark! So if we were to overshoot the forecast for either day by just one degree, we would indeed have Winter 2011-12's coldest weekend in the books!
The cold air's stay here is a brief one, as temperatures look to work back into the 30s by Monday! A weak system brings a light snow threat to the area Monday night into Tuesday, and then another system my threaten a light wintry mix on Wednesday. Despite those chances, temperatures appear poised to flirt with 40° once again during that time!
There are no big snows foreseen in the upcoming week, which should put a larger gap in our deficit for the season! Our tally for the season remains at 14.1", a bit more than half the normal snowfall to date of 25.8°. Winter 2010-11 had registered a whopping 343% more snow than what has come down to this point this season, a startling stat indeed!
Snow lovers, don't abandon hope just yet. History suggests that approximately 30% of our seasonal snowfall occurs beyond today's date. That works out to be right around 11 inches in a normal case...