Just when we were really starting to make some solid headway in alleviating our drought situation, we've hit a sizable speed bump the past few days. What's more, all indications seem to point to this speed bump potentially developing into a
substantial mogul in the coming days!
Every day, the first thing I'll do upon getting into work is survey an array of different computer forecast models to get a glance and the long term trends before I get to the nitty gritty of hammering out the finer details of the 7-day forecast. What intrigued me was that one computer model showed absolutely nothing as far as rainfall until Columbus Day, October 8th! But one of the first lessons you learn as a forecaster is to never trust just one model... However, when four successive runs of that model all point toward AT LEAST 10 days of dry weather, and another completely different model from halfway around the globe does the same thing, confidence increases exponentially!
The average of the five solutions I analyzed Tuesday afternoon suggest we'll not see as much as a raindrop until Saturday, October 6th! And by no means is that written in stone, as the models are hardly going crazy with any huge rains in that time period! It's entirely conceivable that we'll stay dry beyond that date!
It's not the greatest news when it comes to our drought, which is still officially in the Extreme category here, and will stay that way for at least the next two weeks. It is, however, good news for those with any sort of outdoor plans these next couple weeks! Weather conditions for anything and everything outside will be nothing short of spectacular!