There's about a 38 percent chance measurable snow will on the ground in Chicago and Rockford; a 29 percent chance in Jacksonville; and a 14 percent chance in Peoria, Springfield, Belleville and Mount Vernon.

State Climatologist Jim Angel says that's based on climate data dating back to 1971.

Angel points out that the 1970s were cold and snowy. More recently winter has been milder. Except last year, when Chicago's O'Hare International Airport reported 6 inches on the ground on Christmas morning.

Angel says to have a guaranteed white Christmas in the Midwest, you'll have to travel to Minnesota, northern Wisconsin, or northern Michigan.